Argument: Russian backing of Republika Srpska ind. could spark global conflict


Andrew Miiller. “The Kosovo Battleground”. The April 2008 – Dodik made it a point to attend the February 25 meeting between Medvedev and the Serbian prime minister.

At that meeting, Medvedev stated that Serbia’s participation in Russia’s planned South Stream gas pipeline to southern Europe was an act of Russian support for Serbia over the Kosovo issue. “It is an element of our support—moral, material and economic—to a state which has found itself in a very difficult position and which—unfortunately, due to the will of some other countries—is being doubted as a single territorial entity,” he said.

Medvedev affirmed that Srpska—not all of Bosnia-Herzegovina, just Srpska—would be included in the Russian buy-up of most of the Serbian energy sector and in the proposed South Stream pipeline.

According to Stratfor, Srpska is a net energy exporter and really has no need for Russian gas. The fact that Dodik traveled all the way to Serbia to meet with Medvedev about a gas deal he does not need, combined with the fact that Dodik has expressed approval over Srpska secessionist riots, led to speculation that Russia may back both the Bosnian and the Kosovo Serbian secessionist movements.

Supporting the reunion of Srpska and the Serb-dominated counties of Kosovo with their Serbian motherland is a chance for Russia to get even with the EU and America over Kosovo’s declaration of independence.

Maroje Mihovilović. Putin lashes out at the West by way of Republika Srpska. 11 Aug. 2007 – up to now the Russian-Serbian political love affair has been limited only to the issue of Kosovo, and to Serbia; the Republika Srpska was outside of this. These last days, after Lajcak’s measures, the situation has changed significantly. Suddenly Russia has become involved in the situation in Bosnia & Herzegovina in the same fashion it is involved in the events around Kosovo. Just as they have blocked western activity concerning Kosovo, now it is as if they are announcing the same kind of blockade of international action when it comes to Republika Srpska. There are signs that the intentions of Dodik will not be the source of the chief problem faced by Lajcak, but rather very likely the Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Alekseyev or Harcenko, the Russian special envoy for the Balkans. In the Republika Srpska they are putting their trust in Russian aid, just as in Serbia they are putting their trust in Russia when it comes to Kosovo. That is why Putin’s picture was carried at the rally in Banja Luka.

By all accounts Bosnia & Herzegovina is facing turbulent times, because Lajcak has announced that he would not only implement his latest measures, but that he would also embark on the complete implementation of all measures for the strengthening of the joint institutions of that country foreseen by the Dayton Agreement that have not to date been implemented. Washington and Brussels are indicating that Lajcak will have their full support in doing so, which means that the West is preparing for a confrontation with Russia in Bosnia & Herzegovina. That the crisis could take a turn for the worse was indicated by Admiral Hans-Jochen Witthauer, the commander of the EUFOR military force in Bosnia & Herzegovina, who a few days ago told the Mostar-based Dnevni list daily that the international community was capable of intervening in the event of a new war.