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Argument: Ethnic voting in Democracies often stokes ethnic violence

Issue Report: Democratic peace theory

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James Ostrowski. “The Myth of Democratic Peace: Why Democracy Cannot Deliver Peace in the 21st Century”. LewRockwell. Spring 2002 – The empirical evidence indicates that democracy promotes ethnic conflict. An examination of the dynamics of the democratic process explains why this is so. In democracies, people tend to vote along ethnic/religious lines. (Since ethnicity and religion are closely linked, they can be dealt with together.) All experience confirms this. People of one ethnic group tend to vote for candidates of the same ethnic group, or candidates known to favor the interests of such group. For example, 93 percent of Republicans are white according to the Gallup Poll; while 93 percent of blacks voted for Al Gore for President in 2000. That being the case, it must be true that the candidates people vote against are usually identified with other ethnic groups. Since those voters opposed that candidate, it is reasonable to assume that they harbor a certain amount of resentment against those whose votes put that candidate into office. Voters may come to view any increase in the population of other ethnic groups as a threat to their well being, portending as it does the election of officials they believe will harm their interests.

It is no accident that people tend to vote along ethnic and religious lines. It is inherent in the nature of democracy. Democracy gives each person a virtually meaningless single vote. It allows them to vote for one of the candidates on the ballot, none of whom may represent the views and values of the voter. The average voter in a lifetime is unlikely to decide an election with his vote. The odds of casting the deciding vote in favor of a candidate whose views precisely mirror your own are millions to one. Since voters implicitly recognize the virtual meaninglessness of their one vote, they have little incentive to inform themselves in detail about candidates, issues, and polices. It is much easier to vote for ethnic reasons. The ethnic identity of candidates is usually clear. Further, it takes little additional effort to ascertain which ethnic groups a candidate serves. Thus, ethnic voting is a rational response to the problem of rational ignorance about candidates and issues. Ethnic identity provides valuable information at very low cost. Given its efficiency, it always has been and likely always will be a major factor in elections.

Even if it is argued that people of similar ethnic and religious backgrounds vote alike, not because of those backgrounds per se, but because of their similar experiences, situations, values, and needs, we reach the same conclusion. Since these factors themselves are closely tied to ethnic and religious identity, the voting patterns they produce will be closely tied to and, in practice, virtually indistinguishable from, ethnicity and religion.

Thus, democracy, inherently, contains the seeds of ethnic conflict. History shows that, under certain circumstances, people who are members of ethnic minorities prefer to fight wars of secession, to escape from the control of majority ethnic groups they believe are hostile to their interests. The ethnic conflict created by democracy necessarily worsens over time. The natural tendency of democratic government is to grow in size, power and scope, a critical fact that seems to have escaped the notice of the democratic pacifists.19 By its nature, the state is the means by which some people can impose the costs of achieving their goals onto unwilling others. As Bastiat put it, “Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else.”20 The desire to impose costs on others is virtually limitless. Thus, governments tend to grow over time. For example, the government of the United States has been steadily growing in power ever since 1776. Even conservative Republican Presidents increase the power of the federal government. Every one since Hoover did so.21 The pattern continues. The federal government is much stronger now than it was in January, 2001, when a conservative President took office. In all likelihood, it will be even stronger ten years from now. Government tends to grow until it has substantially destroyed the society upon which it depredates. As government power increases, so does the threat perceived by ethnic minorities, and, finally, their willingness to fight wars of secession. At some point, ethnic minorities will simply refuse to have their wealth confiscated and their cultures destroyed by majority ethnic groups. They will fight.